When Will Ut Snow in Silverton Idaho Again

Mon and Tuesday will be dry and warm with highs in the 30s. Snow from our next storm will primarily fall on Midweek morning with snowfall showers lingering throughout Midweek afternoon. Accumulations should exist in the unmarried digits for nearly areas with double digits far to the southward and w. After that, we could see light snow on Fri and Sun with a stronger storm around Christmas.

Short Term Forecast

Let's start the week with a look at how much snow is on the footing.

Snowpack

Based on a network of 115 mid-and-loftier-top snow measuring stations called SNOTEL, our current snowpack is 75% of the average based on the last thirty years. This number could exist better, just for perspective, ane week ago, nosotros were at l% of average, so we closed one-half of the gap back to boilerplate with but i storm.

In the map above, the black line is this year's snowpack, the green line is the median snowpack over the last 30 years, the ruddy line shows the shallowest snowpack and the purple line shows the deepest snowpack over the last xxx years. The final storm provided a dainty bump following very picayune snow during the previous 3+ weeks.

I have non verified the following statement, just years ago, I heard a National Atmospheric condition Service meteorologist mention that in Colorado, 20% of the storms provide 80% of the snowpack. Or in other words, a few big storms drop most of our snow. That statement feels correct and gives another perspective on concluding week's meaning snow accumulations.

Our snowpack that's hovering effectually 75% of average compares favorably to the rest of the western US where about snowpack numbers are near or below ours. Each number in the map beneath shows the percent of average snowpack in that river basin.

With a series of significant storms coming to a lot of the westward, the map in a higher place will modify this calendar week and my guess is that most river basins to our west and to our n will increment to closer to (or even above) boilerplate.

Monday and Tuesday

The forecast for Monday and Tuesday is that near mountains will be dry with warm high temperatures in the 30s. Most mountains accept opened more terrain during the last few days but we could employ another significant tempest or two to open up a lot more terrain.

On Tuesday afternoon, the far southern mountains (Purgatory, Silverton, Wolf Creek) could see snow showers and light accumulations as the next tempest approaches.

Storm: Tuesday night – Wednesday afternoon

This volition be a quick-hit organisation.

On Tuesday night, the far southern mountains will be favored with 3-6+ inches of snow while most other mountains encounter picayune or no aggregating. The current of air from the southward volition favor the far southern mountains.

On Midweek morning between well-nigh 6 am – 8 am, a cold front will plow from westward to eastward across Colorado. As the cold front passes, temperatures volition rapidly drop by 10-20°F, the air current management will switch from the south to the westward, and most importantly, intense snowfall volition fall with a quick 2-5 inches of accumulation.

On Wednesday afterwards morning through afternoon, snowfall showers volition continue with another few inches of snow accumulating, specially for areas favored by a wind from the west and westward-southwest including perhaps Steamboat, Aspen, Crested Butte, Telluride, Silverton, and Wolf Creek.

Full snowfall from Tuesday night through Wednesday evening should look like the multi-model forecast beneath with 2-vi inches for most mountains and 10-15. inches in the pink areas favoring the southern mountains, Grand Mesa, Flattops, and Westward Elk Mountains.

Below is the CAIC WRF 2km forecast for Tuesday night through Wednesday evening. It shows most the same total snowfall as the multi-model forecast above with two-6 inches for most mountains and ten+ inches favoring southern areas.

To epitomize, look for snowfall on Tuesday night in the southern mountains and on Wednesday at all mountains, with 2-6 inches for most spots and x-xv inches favoring areas further to the w and south.

Thursday and Fri

On Th we should see dry weather, then from Th night through Friday, a weak storm could bring light snow to the northern and central mountains with maybe a few inches of accumulation. I take low confidence in the forecast for this time period.

Extended Forecast

From Saturday, Dec 18 through the week leading up to Christmas, the main weather action will exist an surface area of storminess over the westward coast. You tin can see this highlighted in the blue color on the map below.

This west-declension storminess could hateful a lot more snow next calendar week for places that are already near to get a lot of snowfall this week (California, Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, possibly Utah).

For us here in Colorado, it's a 'close only no cigar' type of pattern. I've been wishy-washy in the forecast for the week leading up to Christmas because I don't like to make statements of certainty about weather patterns that are a calendar week or more into the future. But it's condign increasingly clear that, while maybe we'll become lucky in some way and see a stronger storm, it'due south nearly likely that the almost snow this upcoming weekend and early next calendar week should stay to our w and northwest.

I do take some snowy news, though.

Following the storm this Wed and maybe some low-cal snowfall on Friday as well, in that location might exist some light snow around the Dominicus, December 19 to Monday, December 20 timeframe.

Then, during the time around Christmas (December 24-27), all models are showing that some of that west-coast storminess volition push east through the Rockies and probable bring a good chance at significant snow to Colorado. In the graphic beneath, on the right side, you can encounter that well-nigh of the 51 horizontal lines (which each represent a unlike version of the European forecast model) evidence decent to significant precipitation. This is a pretty potent signal for a 10+ day forecast, which leads to at least moderate confidence in a storm effectually Christmas.

If it happens, will the storm come before Christmas? On Christmas? Just afterwards Christmas? We can't know that at this point.

Let's just promise that models keep trending this way because it would take just 1 more than significant storm (or series of ane-two moderate storms in quick succession) to bump our snowpack to near average and open up a lot more (likely non all) terrain at most mountains.

And call back, OpenSnow is more than than just the Colorado Daily Snow and a weather forecast! For case, you can compare the percent of terrain open at ski areas in Colorado hither, and don't forget to toggle the "Show Sort" push near the top (on mobile, gyre the options all the way to the right) and then sort past "Surface area Open up". Right at present, Wolf Creek leads the pack with 100% of terrain open and Ski Cooper is in 2nd identify with 64% of terrain open up. Both of these mountains are at high elevations and rely virtually entirely on natural snowfall (Wolf Creek has a lilliputian chip of snowmaking at the base).

Thanks for reading!

JOEL GRATZ

PS – This week, we are going to make some significant changes to OpenSnow. If yous're an All-Access subscriber (thank you!), you lot'll see no changes. If you are not an All-Access subscriber, here is an FAQ with more details about the upcoming changes, and we promise that somewhen, we'll earn your back up. On our website, you'll likely see these changes at some point today (Mon, Dec 13) and on our mobile apps, these changes volition likely go alive later this week.

Hither is a 3-infinitesimal video that I made (with my son Levi) to introduce a few of the upcoming changes. Delight sentinel the video to at least run across what Levi has to say to everyone at the end (non of this was scripted/apposite and I'm surprised information technology worked out!). If you can't see the video embedded below, tap here.

And beneath are videos from our Tahoe forecaster Bryan and our Utah forecast Evan. I promise that yous'll take another few minutes to meet them likewise!

Bryan in Tahoe:

Evan in Utah:

Announcements

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Bluebird Backcountry, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Laissez passer, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Carve up
Loveland, Arapahoe Bowl, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Cardinal Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains

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Source: https://opensnow.com/dailysnow/colorado/post/23859

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